Betting Lines
| Spread | IONA -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | IONA -300 BUF +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IONA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IONA +25 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | IONA -16.0 (+9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IONA -12.6 (+12.4) | 143.4 (+9.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IONA -11.4 (+13.6) | 144.8 (+8.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IONA -11.8 (+13.2) | 146.8 (+6.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IONA -12.1 (+12.9) | 146.2 (+6.8) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IONA | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 4-27 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 2-16 |
| Home | 9-5 | 2-13 |
| Away | 5-8 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 79.6 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#182) | -16.7 (#360) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#240) | -3.34 (#356) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#198) | -4.67 (#351) |
| RPI | 0.363 (#315) | 0.288 (#350) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IONA | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 38.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 59.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.4% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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