Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | NMSU +155 SIU -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +27 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | SIU -12.5 (-14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.8 (-2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -11.0 (-16.0) | 139.1 (-4.1) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -7.9 (-19.1) | 140.6 (-5.6) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -8.6 (-18.4) | 142.9 (-7.9) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -9.5 (-17.5) | 142.9 (-7.9) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-3 | 13-5 |
| Away | 1-13 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 68.6 |
| Massey | -8.9 (#320) | 3.6 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.00 (#181) | 0.51 (#141) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#181) | 0.88 (#135) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#167) | 0.527 (#149) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.2% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.2% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 20.0% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 38.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.0% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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