Betting Lines
| Spread | MONM -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | MONM -125 LEH +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONM +9 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | MONM -7.9 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (+19.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONM -6.4 (+2.6) | 145.8 (+21.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONM -6.6 (+2.4) | 142.2 (+24.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONM -5.1 (+3.9) | 143.6 (+23.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONM -2.8 (+6.2) | 143.7 (+23.3) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2025 | MONM 76 – 62 LEH |
| Dec 5, 2024 | LEH 90 – 63 MONM |
| Nov 28, 2022 | LEH 80 – 76 MONM |
| Nov 17, 2021 | MONM 85 – 75 LEH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONM | LEH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-1 | 6-7 |
| Away | 2-13 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#193) | -1.3 (#201) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.17 (#87) | -1.35 (#283) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.45 (#60) | -1.57 (#264) |
| RPI | 0.636 (#40) | 0.525 (#151) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONM | LEH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.9% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.6% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 22.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 15.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 63.4% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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