Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | VILL -175 TTU +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +16 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | TTU -0.7 (+16.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.6 (+34.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -1.1 (+14.9) | 132.0 (+22.0) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -0.5 (+16.5) | 127.3 (+26.7) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -1.2 (+17.2) | 127.7 (+26.3) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -0.2 (+16.2) | 127.2 (+26.8) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#76) | 6.9 (#66) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#234) | 1.76 (#53) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#246) | 2.65 (#54) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#251) | 0.646 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 20.6% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 42.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 37.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 30.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.7% | 39.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 4.3% |
Game Analysis
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