Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -800 UNI +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +22 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -5.0 (+17.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.8 (-0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -7.2 (+14.8) | 149.9 (+10.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -6.3 (+15.7) | 150.9 (+9.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -6.1 (+15.9) | 147.7 (+12.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -5.7 (+16.3) | 150.8 (+9.2) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 12-8 |
| Home | 14-1 | 11-3 |
| Away | 8-2 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 7-5 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#51) | 2.5 (#126) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#82) | -2.05 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.78 (#90) | -3.20 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#163) | 0.313 (#342) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 25.5% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.5% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 8.5% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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