Betting Lines
| Spread | MINN -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | MINN -2500 UAPB +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MINN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MINN +19 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | MINN -19.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.8 (-14.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MINN -15.0 (+4.0) | 156.0 (-3.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MINN -17.7 (+1.3) | 155.4 (-2.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MINN -17.0 (+2.0) | 153.0 (-0.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MINN -17.4 (+1.6) | 153.4 (-0.4) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 15, 2022 | MINN 72 – 56 UAPB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MINN | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 16-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 3-9 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 83.7 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#135) | -10.2 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#246) | -1.10 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#212) | -2.18 (#286) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#111) | 0.333 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MINN | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 26.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 21.0% |
| FT Rate | 38.2% | 40.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.3% | 60.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 59.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.2% | 31.6% |
Game Analysis
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