Betting Lines
| Spread | MRMK -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | MRMK -163 NCAT +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRMK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRMK +23 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | MRMK -11.0 (+12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (+27.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRMK -7.7 (+15.3) | 138.5 (+30.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRMK -7.4 (+15.6) | 139.4 (+29.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRMK -8.2 (+14.8) | 139.2 (+29.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRMK -8.2 (+14.8) | 135.0 (+34.0) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRMK | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-2 | 4-7 |
| Away | 7-9 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L10 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.6 | 77.9 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#170) | -10.8 (#338) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#54) | -0.84 (#255) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.16 (#42) | -1.23 (#248) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#89) | 0.478 (#206) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRMK | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 33.5% |
| 3PT% | 27.9% | 26.9% |
| REB / G | 28.0 | 26.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.50 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 40.4% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 13.3% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 18.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 60.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 60.8% | 55.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 15.5% |
Game Analysis
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