Betting Lines
| Spread | KU -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.0 Under |
| Money | MARQ +150 KU -180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +14 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | KU -6.7 (+20.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.9 (-33.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KU -2.4 (+16.4) | 156.6 (-24.6) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KU -2.5 (+16.5) | 158.9 (-26.9) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | KU -3.0 (+17.0) | 157.9 (-25.9) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KU -3.1 (+17.1) | 160.0 (-28.0) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | KU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-2 | 15-1 |
| Away | 7-5 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 13.3 (#18) | 20.1 (#5) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.46 (#6) | 2.89 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.29 (#7) | 4.50 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.755 (#9) | 0.753 (#10) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | KU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 57.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 43.3% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 42.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.85 | 2.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.9% | 65.7% |
| TOV% | 11.7% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 40.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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