Betting Lines
| Spread | WRST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | ILST +110 WRST -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WRST +25 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | ILST -4.1 (-29.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (-28.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -1.0 (-26.0) | 143.0 (-20.0) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -2.7 (-27.7) | 144.0 (-21.0) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -2.6 (-27.6) | 143.5 (-20.5) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -3.3 (-28.3) | 144.8 (-21.8) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | WRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 13-7 |
| Home | 10-6 | 9-7 |
| Away | 4-8 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 86.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 82.8 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#156) | -3.3 (#237) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#133) | -0.02 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#73) | 0.52 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#237) | 0.592 (#74) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | WRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 50.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.5% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 60.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 13.0% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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