All my failings exposed, gets a taste in my mouth as desperation takes hold "Love Will Tear Us Apart" - Joy Division
Illinois State Redbirds
49 – 74
FINAL Neutral Gulf Coast Showcase
Wright State Raiders
Hertz Arena (Neutral) · November 22, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread WRST -2.5 Away covered
O/U 149.5 Under
Money ILST +110 / WRST -138
Model Predictions
Spread Total ILST win
Actual WRST +25 123 Lost
Massey ILST -4.1 (-29.1) — —
Massey Totals — 151.3 (-28.3) —
Bradley-Terry — — 65% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 83% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ ILST -1.0 (-26.0) 143.0 (-20.0) 59% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML ILST -2.7 (-27.7) 144.0 (-21.0) 61% ✗
Baseline ML ILST -2.6 (-27.6) 143.5 (-20.5) 62% ✗
Baseline Plus ML ILST -3.3 (-28.3) 144.8 (-21.8) 61% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ILST WRST
Overall 15-17 18-14
Conference 9-11 13-7
Home 10-6 9-7
Away 4-8 7-6
Neutral 1-3 2-1
Last 5 2-2 1-4
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 66.2 86.2
Avg Pts Against 68.0 82.8
Massey 0.7 (#156) -3.3 (#237)
Bradley-Terry 0.59 (#133) -0.02 (#185)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.11 (#73) 0.52 (#161)
RPI 0.447 (#237) 0.592 (#74)
Shooting & Four Factors ILST WRST
FG% 39.4% 50.2%
3PT% 30.1% 33.3%
REB / G 36.0 35.2
OREB / G 11.8 12.2
AST / TO 0.76 0.89
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 45.5% 54.9%
TOV% 16.7% 19.4%
ORB% 29.6% 35.5%
FT Rate 27.3% 21.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.1% 60.7%
Opp TOV% 21.1% 13.0%
DRB% 70.3% 73.6%
Opp FT Rate 25.0% 20.2%

Game Analysis

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