Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -14.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | HAW -1000 NAU +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +9 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -12.9 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (-16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -10.8 (-1.8) | 143.8 (-12.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -11.1 (-2.1) | 144.1 (-13.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -9.2 (-0.2) | 145.2 (-14.2) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-6 | 7-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 76.6 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#161) | -4.8 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#174) | 1.46 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#177) | 2.40 (#64) |
| RPI | 0.317 (#341) | 0.598 (#68) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 59.6% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 50.0% | 24.3% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 68.3% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 19.5% |
| FT Rate | 40.4% | 15.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 83.3% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.4% | 31.7% |
Game Analysis
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