We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
Thomas Assembly Center · November 22, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread LT -6.5 Home covered
O/U 134.5 Under
Money LT -333 / MCN +240
Model Predictions
Spread Total LT win
Actual LT +9 133 Won
Massey LT -4.8 (+4.2) — —
Massey Totals — 135.3 (-2.3) —
Bradley-Terry — — 80% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 89% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ LT -7.0 (+2.0) 128.8 (+4.2) 75% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML LT -6.4 (+2.6) 134.8 (-1.8) 68% ✓
Baseline ML LT -5.2 (+3.8) 134.7 (-1.7) 70% ✓
Baseline Plus ML LT -5.2 (+3.8) 130.8 (+2.2) 68% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LT MCN
Overall 22-10 30-4
Conference 12-4 17-1
Home 14-2 18-0
Away 8-7 11-3
Neutral 0-1 1-1
Last 5 2-1 2-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 72.1 78.0
Avg Pts Against 65.6 64.8
Massey 7.2 (#58) 10.0 (#32)
Bradley-Terry 2.75 (#23) 2.93 (#17)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.82 (#11) 4.83 (#10)
RPI 0.575 (#87) 0.780 (#6)
Shooting & Four Factors LT MCN
FG% 44.9% 48.8%
3PT% 30.6% 46.2%
REB / G 38.7 32.7
OREB / G 10.3 9.7
AST / TO 1.11 1.19
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.6% 54.2%
TOV% 18.3% 11.4%
ORB% 30.4% 29.0%
FT Rate 26.3% 17.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 43.9% 53.2%
Opp TOV% 14.4% 20.0%
DRB% 74.6% 73.4%
Opp FT Rate 26.0% 14.0%

Game Analysis

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