Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | LT -333 MCN +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +9 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | LT -4.8 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -7.0 (+2.0) | 128.8 (+4.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -6.4 (+2.6) | 134.8 (-1.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LT -5.2 (+3.8) | 134.7 (-1.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -5.2 (+3.8) | 130.8 (+2.2) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LT | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 30-4 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 17-1 |
| Home | 14-2 | 18-0 |
| Away | 8-7 | 11-3 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 78.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 64.8 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#58) | 10.0 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.75 (#23) | 2.93 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.82 (#11) | 4.83 (#10) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#87) | 0.780 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LT | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 46.2% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 11.4% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 14.0% |
Game Analysis
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