Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -165 TENN +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +4 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -3.7 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.4 (+4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -1.7 (+2.3) | 135.4 (+2.6) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -0.5 (+3.5) | 139.8 (-1.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -1.3 (+2.7) | 139.8 (-1.8) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -1.3 (+2.7) | 135.8 (+2.2) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 31, 2024 | PUR 72 – 66 TENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-5 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 14-4 |
| Home | 16-0 | 14-2 |
| Away | 7-3 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 11-2 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.3 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 18.2 (#7) | 14.5 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.92 (#18) | 3.40 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.74 (#13) | 5.46 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.764 (#8) | 0.664 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.7% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 41.7% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.66 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.2% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.0% | 40.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 7.0% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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