Betting Lines
| Spread | AF -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | AF -1200 VMI +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AF +10 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | AF -11.6 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (-23.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AF -10.3 (-0.3) | 136.4 (-18.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AF -8.8 (+1.2) | 137.4 (-19.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AF -10.3 (-0.3) | 138.3 (-20.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AF -10.3 (-0.3) | 137.5 (-19.5) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 1-17 |
| Home | 4-12 | 4-10 |
| Away | 5-8 | 0-15 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L13 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 84.9 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#147) | -2.8 (#230) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#175) | -2.14 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#229) | -3.06 (#317) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#160) | 0.382 (#304) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 6.2 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 21.3% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.8% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
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