Betting Lines
| Spread | CAM -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Over |
| Money | CAM -150 IDST +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDST +14 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | IDST -0.9 (-13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 118.7 (+5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -1.4 (-12.6) | 124.0 (-0.0) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -0.6 (-13.4) | 123.6 (+0.4) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -0.1 (-13.9) | 123.9 (+0.1) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -0.2 (-13.8) | 123.2 (+0.8) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAM | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 14-20 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-6 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-11 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -6.1 (#288) | 2.5 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.86 (#348) | -1.77 (#305) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.35 (#344) | -1.67 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.304 (#344) | 0.353 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAM | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.1% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 28.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.61 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 23.5% | 25.2% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 35.1% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.2% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
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