Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | BALL -150 UPST +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +17 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | BALL -7.7 (+9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.1 (-1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -6.4 (+10.6) | 136.4 (-3.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -4.6 (+12.4) | 134.9 (-1.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -5.5 (+11.5) | 135.0 (-2.0) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -4.8 (+12.2) | 133.5 (-0.5) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 5-11 |
| Home | 9-7 | 6-7 |
| Away | 6-8 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#255) | -4.3 (#257) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#172) | -0.06 (#190) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#182) | -0.52 (#207) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#180) | 0.614 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.6% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 29.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.38 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.8% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 21.3% |
| FT Rate | 32.7% | 15.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 63.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 31.4% |
Game Analysis
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