Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | SAC -111 APSU -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +3 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | APSU -2.2 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.6 (+19.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -0.4 (-2.6) | 131.4 (+13.6) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -2.3 (-0.7) | 130.1 (+14.9) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -2.0 (-1.0) | 129.9 (+15.1) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -1.6 (-1.4) | 127.8 (+17.2) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAC | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-24 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 10-6 |
| Home | 6-8 | 14-3 |
| Away | 2-13 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -7.5 (#311) | -5.4 (#280) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.41 (#339) | -1.37 (#286) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.17 (#343) | -1.94 (#279) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#256) | 0.448 (#236) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAC | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.6% | 36.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 41.4% |
| TOV% | 24.0% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.9% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.5% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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