Betting Lines
| Spread | CREI -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | CREI -2000 LUC +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CREI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +23 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | CREI -20.7 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (-0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CREI -18.3 (+4.7) | 151.2 (+1.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CREI -14.0 (+9.0) | 149.0 (+4.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CREI -15.6 (+7.4) | 150.3 (+2.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CREI -14.8 (+8.2) | 148.4 (+4.6) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CREI | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 15-3 |
| Home | 14-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 8-4 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 16.1 (#10) | -4.6 (#264) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#48) | -1.92 (#310) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#55) | -3.17 (#320) |
| RPI | 0.626 (#43) | 0.354 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CREI | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.7% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 43.8 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.98 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 64.6% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 29.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.6% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 10.3% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 79.3% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 9.5% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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