Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | CSUB +155 TAR -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +19 | 99 | Lost |
| Massey | TAR -8.2 (-10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (-46.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -7.0 (-12.0) | 135.1 (-36.1) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -5.4 (-13.6) | 140.6 (-41.6) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -5.7 (-13.3) | 141.9 (-42.9) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -5.1 (-13.9) | 137.5 (-38.5) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUB | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 16-4 |
| Home | 10-4 | 13-4 |
| Away | 2-13 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -8.9 (#322) | -0.8 (#184) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.15 (#269) | 0.81 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.60 (#299) | 0.91 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.391 (#293) | 0.556 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUB | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 24.0% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 57.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 59.3% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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