Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 119.5 Under |
| Money | UVA -500 WVU +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +2 | 110 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -8.9 (-6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 112.8 (-2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -4.9 (-2.9) | 123.8 (-13.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -6.0 (-4.0) | 122.7 (-12.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -6.4 (-4.4) | 124.1 (-14.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -6.0 (-4.0) | 124.7 (-14.7) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | WVU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 4-14 |
| Home | 15-2 | 9-9 |
| Away | 5-6 | 0-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.9 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 59.8 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#80) | -2.9 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#108) | -0.63 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#127) | -0.24 (#190) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#115) | 0.422 (#266) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | WVU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 37.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.6% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.83 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 43.4% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.3% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 10.8% |
Game Analysis
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