Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -32.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | AUB -100000 AAMU +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +30 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -22.4 (+7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.2 (-31.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -21.0 (+9.0) | 154.0 (-16.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -19.0 (+11.0) | 156.3 (-18.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -23.4 (+6.6) | 154.0 (-16.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -23.1 (+6.9) | 152.9 (-14.9) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 12-23 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-1 | 7-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.1 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#54) | -7.4 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#83) | -0.90 (#258) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.94 (#82) | -1.20 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.622 (#46) | 0.294 (#346) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 39.4% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 17.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 43.2% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 40.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 32.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.0% | 63.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 33.1% |
Game Analysis
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