Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | VAL -125 WIU +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +7 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | VAL -6.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (-3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAL -0.7 (+6.3) | 145.2 (-6.2) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -2.7 (+4.3) | 138.5 (+0.5) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAL -2.7 (+4.3) | 140.8 (-1.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -4.1 (+2.9) | 140.3 (-1.3) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | WIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 13-5 |
| Home | 6-11 | 10-5 |
| Away | 1-13 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -10.5 (#337) | -8.9 (#319) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.94 (#315) | -0.24 (#202) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.91 (#353) | 0.04 (#176) |
| RPI | 0.386 (#300) | 0.411 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | WIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 32.3% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 19.6% | 25.4% |
| REB / G | 43.3 | 46.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 14.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 35.1% | 43.5% |
| TOV% | 12.3% | 22.9% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 11.4% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.9% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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