Betting Lines
| Spread | CHST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | MORG -111 CHST -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MORG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CHST +1 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | CHST -5.6 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (+21.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CHST -3.8 (+2.8) | 143.7 (+23.3) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CHST -3.7 (+2.7) | 142.9 (+24.1) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CHST -2.9 (+1.9) | 144.4 (+22.6) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CHST -2.8 (+1.8) | 143.7 (+23.3) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MORG | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 0-0 |
| Home | 8-5 | 6-5 |
| Away | 3-12 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.0 | 71.6 |
| Massey | -13.4 (#351) | -7.8 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.68 (#301) | -2.32 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.38 (#294) | -3.42 (#331) |
| RPI | 0.380 (#305) | 0.266 (#352) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MORG | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.9% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 26.5% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.48 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.3% | 43.5% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 15.7% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 61.9% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 60.0% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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