Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | MUR +110 APP -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +10 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | APP -11.6 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.9 (-35.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -6.6 (-3.4) | 147.8 (-23.8) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -7.8 (-2.2) | 151.0 (-27.0) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -8.2 (-1.8) | 152.8 (-28.8) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -7.9 (-2.1) | 154.2 (-30.2) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 16-2 |
| Home | 8-8 | 15-0 |
| Away | 4-9 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#301) | 4.8 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.93 (#312) | 0.85 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.67 (#302) | 1.41 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.248 (#356) | 0.582 (#80) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 13.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.9% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 79.6% | 78.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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