Betting Lines
| Spread | SHSU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | GRAM +400 SHSU -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GRAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SHSU +18 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | SHSU -11.7 (-6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (+10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SHSU -11.1 (-6.9) | 142.1 (+11.9) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SHSU -8.6 (-9.4) | 142.1 (+11.9) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SHSU -8.3 (-9.7) | 142.7 (+11.3) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SHSU -9.8 (-8.2) | 143.4 (+10.6) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GRAM | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 13-3 |
| Home | 9-3 | 12-2 |
| Away | 7-9 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -14.1 (#355) | -2.4 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.58 (#343) | -0.38 (#212) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.45 (#347) | -0.51 (#205) |
| RPI | 0.390 (#295) | 0.430 (#258) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GRAM | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.5% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 25.5% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 23.0 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.37 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.3% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 24.0% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 21.2% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 33.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.5% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 23.1% |
| DRB% | 62.3% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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