Northern Kentucky
Norse
88
–
73
FINAL
NKU Thanksgiving Tournament
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
Islanders
Betting Lines
| Spread | NKU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | NKU -300 AMCC +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NKU +15 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | NKU -5.0 (+10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (+15.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NKU -3.8 (+11.2) | 138.0 (+23.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NKU -3.2 (+11.8) | 141.0 (+20.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NKU -3.5 (+11.5) | 140.7 (+20.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NKU -4.2 (+10.8) | 140.5 (+20.5) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NKU | AMCC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 14-4 |
| Home | 12-3 | 13-2 |
| Away | 6-11 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 68.9 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#222) | 0.3 (#168) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#261) | -0.33 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#233) | -0.28 (#191) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#231) | 0.612 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NKU | AMCC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 35.2% |
| 3PT% | 19.6% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.3% | 39.8% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 23.3% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 9.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 61.4% | 60.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 33.1% |
Game Analysis
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