Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | NMSU +225 FRES -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +5 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | FRES -9.3 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (+20.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -5.9 (+0.9) | 139.3 (+17.7) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -6.1 (+1.1) | 140.2 (+16.8) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -5.6 (+0.6) | 142.3 (+14.7) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -3.9 (-1.1) | 143.7 (+13.3) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 4-14 |
| Home | 12-3 | 7-9 |
| Away | 1-13 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -8.9 (#320) | 0.4 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.00 (#181) | -0.46 (#219) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#181) | -0.67 (#217) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#167) | 0.408 (#279) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.2% | 56.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 44.4% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.2% | 63.6% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 25.7% |
| ORB% | 20.0% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 14.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.0% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 77.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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