Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -25.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +29 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -23.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.9 (+7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -19.2 (+9.8) | 144.5 (+16.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -18.1 (+10.9) | 149.2 (+11.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -19.4 (+9.6) | 147.5 (+13.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -20.1 (+8.9) | 146.4 (+14.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 6-12 |
| Home | 15-3 | 11-6 |
| Away | 7-4 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#23) | -4.3 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#136) | 1.40 (#71) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.17 (#117) | 1.69 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#113) | 0.596 (#70) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.4% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 1.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.6% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 12.6% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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