We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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32–27 on winners spread MAE 10.9 59 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Prairie View A&M @ Mississippi Valley State -6.7 133.0 23% 67–60 ✓
Oklahoma @ Texas Tech +6.1 139.2 72% 68–63 ✗
Oregon @ Utah +6.7 134.8 76% 70–60 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Columbia -5.1 140.3 28% 84–55 ✓
Harvard @ Yale +8.6 132.5 80% 54–58 ✓
UAB @ Florida International -10.2 158.2 17% 87–90 ✗
Southern Utah @ Abilene Christian -0.6 153.6 47% 74–72 ✓
The Citadel @ Wofford +7.0 141.4 76% 57–77 ✓
North Florida @ Florida Gulf Coast +10.8 149.4 87% 57–82 ✓
NC State @ Virginia Tech +2.9 144.1 61% 73–69 ✗
Utah Valley @ UT Rio Grande Valley -8.6 153.0 19% 75–61 ✓
Pacific @ Pepperdine +5.5 156.2 74% 80–75 ✗
BYU @ San Diego -2.7 152.6 39% 68–48 ✓
Georgia State @ Louisiana +8.9 140.3 82% 70–78 ✓
App State @ James Madison +13.1 144.9 88% 71–62 ✗
Omaha @ St. Thomas +7.5 151.2 78% 68–80 ✓
Kansas City @ Oral Roberts +14.1 143.7 88% 71–74 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ UC Riverside +9.2 140.6 82% 45–68 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Davis +7.3 137.1 77% 48–67 ✓
Montana @ Northern Colorado -1.4 150.8 43% 79–74 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Queens University +4.8 148.1 71% 76–67 ✗
Stetson @ North Alabama -1.5 144.9 45% 95–85 ✓
Arkansas @ Auburn +0.5 137.5 50% 59–72 ✓
Butler @ Seton Hall +1.5 133.5 56% 51–76 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Southern Indiana -1.4 151.4 43% 69–62 ✓
California Baptist @ New Mexico State +4.7 138.1 69% 70–61 ✗
Portland @ Saint Mary's +13.6 136.9 88% 43–85 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC Irvine +9.0 153.8 81% 70–87 ✓
Hawai'i @ Cal State Fullerton +0.6 128.2 49% 72–79 ✓
Idaho State @ Weber State +5.1 138.1 74% 67–57 ✗
Bellarmine @ Jacksonville State +1.2 131.1 54% 75–62 ✗
UNLV @ New Mexico +7.3 149.0 77% 84–77 ✗
Oregon State @ Colorado +12.1 137.8 88% 42–62 ✓
Gonzaga @ Santa Clara -1.0 157.4 45% 81–76 ✓
San Francisco @ Loyola Marymount +4.6 146.2 71% 72–70 ✗
Northwestern @ Indiana +5.4 135.1 69% 84–83 ✗
Vermont @ New Hampshire -4.8 130.5 29% 60–67 ✗
Iowa @ Rutgers +9.3 142.1 80% 76–65 ✗
Ohio State @ Maryland -0.6 141.7 48% 73–80 ✗
Bucknell @ Lafayette +1.3 131.0 57% 67–74 ✓
Wichita State @ South Florida +1.6 131.3 54% 70–66 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ Holy Cross +4.2 129.9 67% 55–63 ✓
UMBC @ Bryant +4.6 158.3 70% 81–73 ✗
Oakland @ Wright State +5.3 153.5 72% 75–73 ✗
Liberty @ Eastern Kentucky -6.8 138.1 22% 59–62 ✗
SMU @ UCF +11.2 132.0 86% 53–85 ✓
Boston University @ American University +6.3 129.8 76% 74–76 ✓
NJIT @ Maine +6.6 136.9 76% 91–83 ✗
Lehigh @ Navy +9.5 142.9 85% 78–73 ✗
Rider @ Siena +6.2 141.6 77% 63–68 ✓
Canisius @ Saint Peter's +1.0 133.1 52% 67–60 ✗
Iona @ Quinnipiac -4.0 146.1 36% 58–81 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Marist -2.6 130.7 37% 56–63 ✗
Niagara @ Manhattan -6.0 132.1 25% 59–64 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Northern Kentucky +1.5 136.8 59% 76–78 ✓
Houston @ Cincinnati -9.3 132.9 16% 72–59 ✓
UMass Lowell @ UAlbany -10.2 143.3 16% 63–89 ✗
Washington @ Arizona State +7.3 139.2 78% 65–73 ✓
Purdue @ Penn State -1.7 137.9 39% 76–63 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.