Betting Lines
| Spread | BRY -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | BRY -188 UMBC +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +8 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | BRY -6.5 (-14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.9 (-12.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRY -4.2 (-12.2) | 157.8 (-3.8) | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRY -4.0 (-12.0) | 153.0 (+1.0) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRY -4.6 (-12.6) | 158.3 (-4.3) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BRY -4.3 (-12.3) | 158.2 (-4.2) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | UMBC 70 – 58 BRY |
| Jan 15, 2026 | BRY 79 – 74 UMBC |
| Mar 8, 2025 | BRY 85 – 74 UMBC |
| Feb 15, 2025 | BRY 81 – 79 UMBC |
| Jan 31, 2025 | BRY 92 – 86 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRY | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-13 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 8-8 |
| Home | 9-4 | 13-4 |
| Away | 7-8 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 73.0 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#187) | -2.8 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#123) | -0.27 (#203) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#166) | -0.50 (#213) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#125) | 0.463 (#244) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRY | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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