Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | CIN +320 HOU -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +13 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | HOU -12.6 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.3 (+0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -10.0 (-3.0) | 133.4 (-2.4) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -11.3 (-1.7) | 132.6 (-1.6) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -9.3 (-3.7) | 132.9 (-1.9) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -10.3 (-2.7) | 132.0 (-1.0) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | HOU 76 – 54 CIN |
| Jan 3, 2026 | HOU 67 – 60 CIN |
| Mar 1, 2025 | HOU 73 – 64 CIN |
| Feb 28, 2024 | HOU 67 – 59 CIN |
| Feb 10, 2024 | HOU 67 – 62 CIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 33-4 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 17-1 |
| Home | 16-3 | 16-2 |
| Away | 5-7 | 11-0 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 57.5 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#81) | 23.3 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#114) | 3.61 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#112) | 4.60 (#3) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#114) | 0.635 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 40.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 40.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 38.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 23.8% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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