Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | ACU -125 SUU +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ACU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SUU +2 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | SUU -1.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.0 (-10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SUU -1.0 (-1.0) | 152.7 (-6.7) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SUU -0.8 (-1.2) | 148.6 (-2.6) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SUU -0.6 (-1.4) | 153.6 (-7.6) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SUU -1.4 (-0.6) | 153.1 (-7.1) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ACU 87 – 83 SUU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | SUU 79 – 76 ACU |
| Jan 18, 2026 | SUU 74 – 52 ACU |
| Feb 21, 2025 | ACU 75 – 59 SUU |
| Feb 9, 2025 | ACU 84 – 70 SUU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ACU | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-17 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-5 | 13-2 |
| Away | 5-8 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 77.1 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#223) | 2.6 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#210) | 0.34 (#148) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#223) | 0.46 (#138) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#230) | 0.520 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ACU | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 29.5 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 33.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.5% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.6% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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