Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Under |
| Money | MRST +110 MSM -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +7 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | MSM -2.0 (+9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.7 (-6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -2.6 (+9.6) | 130.3 (-11.3) | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -1.3 (+8.3) | 130.1 (-11.1) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -2.6 (+9.6) | 130.7 (-11.7) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -2.9 (+9.9) | 131.8 (-12.8) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | MRST 64 – 56 MSM |
| Mar 14, 2025 | MSM 62 – 58 MRST |
| Mar 8, 2025 | MSM 62 – 52 MRST |
| Dec 7, 2024 | MRST 53 – 50 MSM |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MSM 76 – 58 MRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 8-12 |
| Home | 5-10 | 5-9 |
| Away | 4-9 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 63.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 67.9 |
| Massey | -9.4 (#327) | -3.2 (#228) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.90 (#328) | -0.89 (#265) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.68 (#337) | -1.02 (#256) |
| RPI | 0.388 (#344) | 0.449 (#275) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.1% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 16.7% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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