Betting Lines
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | MAN +140 NIA -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MAN +5 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | NIA -4.8 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.2 (-7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIA -4.6 (+9.6) | 130.9 (-7.9) | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIA -4.4 (+9.4) | 131.5 (-8.5) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIA -6.0 (+11.0) | 132.1 (-9.1) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NIA -5.1 (+10.1) | 132.6 (-9.6) | 32% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | MAN 76 – 69 NIA |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MAN 79 – 70 NIA |
| Mar 2, 2025 | MAN 85 – 70 NIA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | MAN 72 – 65 NIA |
| Jan 28, 2024 | MAN 84 – 78 NIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MAN | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-18 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 10-10 |
| Home | 5-9 | 9-4 |
| Away | 6-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.6 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 66.4 |
| Massey | -12.1 (#346) | -3.1 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.63 (#349) | 0.23 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.65 (#354) | -0.19 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.377 (#349) | 0.513 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MAN | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 64.2% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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