Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | AMER -163 BU +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +2 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | AMER -8.6 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.7 (+20.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -6.2 (-4.2) | 130.1 (+19.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -3.9 (-1.9) | 127.5 (+22.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -6.3 (-4.3) | 129.8 (+20.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -6.6 (-4.6) | 130.9 (+19.1) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | BU 75 – 73 AMER |
| Feb 28, 2026 | BU 68 – 65 AMER |
| Jan 3, 2026 | AMER 64 – 62 BU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | AMER 48 – 44 BU |
| Jan 9, 2025 | BU 60 – 54 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-6 | 9-4 |
| Away | 9-9 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.9 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#151) | -3.4 (#236) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#125) | -0.54 (#228) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#132) | -0.94 (#249) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#195) | 0.463 (#241) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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