Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | UCD -400 CSUB +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +19 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | UCD -10.5 (+8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (-21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -6.8 (+12.2) | 134.2 (-19.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -8.8 (+10.2) | 134.9 (-19.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -7.3 (+11.7) | 137.1 (-22.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -7.3 (+11.7) | 137.0 (-22.0) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | UCD 80 – 72 CSUB |
| Jan 3, 2026 | CSUB 81 – 79 UCD |
| Feb 21, 2025 | CSUB 71 – 66 UCD |
| Jan 3, 2025 | CSUB 75 – 64 UCD |
| Feb 25, 2024 | CSUB 75 – 56 UCD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 11-8 | 6-14 |
| Home | 10-4 | 6-8 |
| Away | 5-9 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 59.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#157) | -5.5 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#191) | -1.40 (#301) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#170) | -1.58 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#169) | 0.402 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 42.5% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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