Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | USF -138 WICH +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WICH +4 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | USF -1.3 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.0 (+12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -1.1 (-5.1) | 132.3 (+3.7) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -0.8 (-4.8) | 132.1 (+3.9) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -1.6 (-5.6) | 131.3 (+4.7) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USF -0.8 (-4.8) | 132.3 (+3.7) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | USF 70 – 55 WICH |
| Feb 12, 2026 | USF 66 – 58 WICH |
| Jan 18, 2026 | WICH 86 – 85 USF |
| Mar 13, 2025 | WICH 73 – 68 USF |
| Feb 9, 2025 | WICH 75 – 70 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | WICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 9-9 | 8-9 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#188) | 2.3 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#259) | -0.26 (#202) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#221) | -0.12 (#190) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#261) | 0.489 (#201) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | WICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 43.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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