Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 121.5 Over |
| Money | CSUF +150 HAW -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUF +7 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -0.2 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.2 (+28.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUF -0.1 (+6.9) | 129.0 (+22.0) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -0.5 (+7.5) | 130.4 (+20.6) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUF -0.6 (+6.4) | 128.2 (+22.8) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CSUF -0.1 (+6.9) | 129.5 (+21.5) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | HAW 78 – 63 CSUF |
| Mar 1, 2026 | HAW 87 – 85 CSUF |
| Dec 7, 2025 | HAW 69 – 59 CSUF |
| Feb 2, 2025 | HAW 82 – 57 CSUF |
| Jan 11, 2025 | HAW 95 – 86 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUF | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 13-7 |
| Home | 11-2 | 13-5 |
| Away | 7-8 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 62.0 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#190) | 3.7 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#169) | 0.82 (#105) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#183) | 1.31 (#89) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#185) | 0.517 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUF | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 43.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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