Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | MVSU +400 PV -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MVSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +7 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | PV -8.2 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.6 (-2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -7.7 (+0.7) | 133.9 (-6.9) | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -7.7 (+0.7) | 131.4 (-4.4) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -6.7 (-0.3) | 133.0 (-6.0) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PV -7.1 (+0.1) | 134.7 (-7.7) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | PV 72 – 62 MVSU |
| Jan 10, 2026 | PV 70 – 69 MVSU |
| Feb 25, 2025 | PV 64 – 56 MVSU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | PV 74 – 65 MVSU |
| Feb 27, 2024 | MVSU 57 – 51 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MVSU | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-27 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 9-9 |
| Home | 4-6 | 9-3 |
| Away | 1-19 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.0 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -16.7 (#358) | -4.3 (#247) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.33 (#342) | -0.96 (#272) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.88 (#344) | -1.00 (#253) |
| RPI | 0.399 (#335) | 0.453 (#266) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MVSU | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.4% | 38.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.51 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.7% | 43.9% |
| TOV% | 25.7% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 34.6% |
Game Analysis
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