Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | NAVY -450 LEH +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LEH +5 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | NAVY -13.1 (-18.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (+8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -10.6 (-15.6) | 142.2 (+8.8) | 85% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -10.1 (-15.1) | 140.8 (+10.2) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -9.5 (-14.5) | 142.9 (+8.1) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -9.7 (-14.7) | 142.5 (+8.5) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | NAVY 72 – 49 LEH |
| Jan 17, 2026 | NAVY 82 – 79 LEH |
| Feb 13, 2025 | NAVY 63 – 60 LEH |
| Jan 30, 2025 | NAVY 79 – 54 LEH |
| Feb 1, 2024 | LEH 77 – 65 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | LEH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 16-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 9-6 | 9-6 |
| Away | 9-7 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#198) | -10.0 (#332) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#183) | -1.17 (#290) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#205) | -1.55 (#291) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#188) | 0.450 (#272) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | LEH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 40.9% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 6.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 18.6% |
| FT Rate | 14.7% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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