Betting Lines
| Spread | HC -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | HC -120 L-MD +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HC +8 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | HC -6.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.5 (-11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HC -3.7 (+4.3) | 129.8 (-11.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HC -2.8 (+5.2) | 128.5 (-10.5) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HC -4.2 (+3.8) | 129.9 (-11.9) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HC -4.0 (+4.0) | 131.1 (-13.1) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | L-MD 76 – 62 HC |
| Feb 15, 2026 | L-MD 83 – 73 HC |
| Jan 25, 2025 | HC 70 – 65 L-MD |
| Jan 2, 2025 | HC 74 – 72 L-MD |
| Feb 3, 2024 | HC 70 – 67 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 6-9 | 9-6 |
| Away | 4-11 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -10.2 (#335) | -12.5 (#348) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.01 (#333) | -1.97 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.40 (#327) | -2.67 (#336) |
| RPI | 0.408 (#324) | 0.396 (#339) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 28.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 22.8% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 16.4% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 57.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.