Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | LAF -110 BUCK +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAF +7 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | LAF -4.2 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.6 (+11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -1.3 (+5.7) | 130.4 (+10.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -1.6 (+5.4) | 127.2 (+13.8) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAF -1.3 (+5.7) | 131.0 (+10.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -1.6 (+5.4) | 132.6 (+8.4) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | LAF 81 – 79 BUCK |
| Jan 15, 2026 | BUCK 76 – 69 LAF |
| Feb 15, 2025 | BUCK 75 – 69 LAF |
| Jan 9, 2025 | BUCK 65 – 62 LAF |
| Mar 3, 2024 | BUCK 60 – 50 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-23 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 5-13 |
| Home | 5-7 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-16 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 69.0 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#261) | -5.2 (#262) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.47 (#346) | -1.55 (#309) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.80 (#338) | -1.78 (#303) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#303) | 0.413 (#314) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 29.6 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 22.3% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 14.2% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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