Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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46–14 on winners spread MAE 7.4 60 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Kansas State @ Texas Tech -1.4 145.5 50% 63–71 ✗
Louisville @ Miami +20.8 149.4 91% 85–93 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Mississippi Valley State -2.8 139.6 34% 70–68 ✓
Tulsa @ UCF +15.3 144.8 88% 52–96 ✓
South Florida @ Cincinnati +10.8 150.8 85% 65–84 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Lehigh +6.4 136.4 74% 91–82 ✗
Illinois State @ Valparaiso +1.0 143.2 56% 76–81 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Vermont +3.3 141.0 70% 81–93 ✓
Columbia @ Yale +21.8 142.5 91% 68–99 ✓
Rice @ Florida International +1.3 151.9 58% 85–78 ✗
Sam Houston @ Abilene Christian -4.2 139.0 32% 77–62 ✓
Longwood @ High Point -6.2 143.8 28% 70–67 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Santa Clara +3.4 152.6 70% 69–71 ✓
South Dakota @ South Dakota State +9.7 146.3 85% 67–72 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Green Bay -11.8 145.3 15% 76–71 ✓
Oakland @ Milwaukee +5.0 155.7 76% 77–80 ✓
Northeastern @ UNC Wilmington +9.5 134.1 83% 59–71 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Liberty +12.1 138.1 85% 73–83 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ UT Rio Grande Valley -3.7 151.9 32% 82–72 ✓
Toledo @ Eastern Michigan -8.3 165.8 23% 70–63 ✓
Arizona @ Stanford -6.0 153.8 26% 79–88 ✗
Arizona State @ California -10.2 130.8 17% 70–62 ✓
Seton Hall @ Villanova +0.6 131.6 54% 54–58 ✓
Wyoming @ Boise State +13.9 136.6 87% 63–75 ✓
Southern Utah @ Utah Valley +6.2 152.1 75% 83–90 ✓
Kansas City @ St. Thomas +4.3 139.4 71% 43–73 ✓
Sacramento State @ Northern Colorado +2.3 144.6 65% 54–70 ✓
Montana State @ Idaho State -4.0 139.4 31% 58–52 ✓
Lipscomb @ North Alabama -1.5 150.4 49% 70–80 ✗
Texas A&M @ LSU -4.1 139.5 36% 74–62 ✓
Tarleton State @ Utah Tech +1.9 144.1 63% 75–71 ✗
Lindenwood @ Southern Indiana +6.5 145.7 78% 64–74 ✓
Montana @ Weber State +0.3 134.7 48% 74–69 ✗
UCLA @ Oregon -1.6 136.4 50% 70–63 ✓
BYU @ Gonzaga +10.0 157.5 85% 81–88 ✓
Colorado @ Utah +4.2 135.5 73% 62–73 ✓
Utah State @ San José State -1.7 144.6 46% 64–69 ✗
Grand Canyon @ Seattle U +1.0 140.3 58% 58–63 ✓
Pepperdine @ San Francisco +7.2 159.9 81% 80–88 ✓
San Diego @ Pacific +3.0 162.6 72% 94–99 ✓
Long Beach State @ Cal State Bakersfield -3.5 145.9 35% 79–69 ✓
UC Davis @ UC Santa Barbara +5.5 139.4 75% 74–84 ✓
Washington @ Washington State +6.2 138.7 76% 51–56 ✓
UC Riverside @ UC Irvine +6.6 142.1 77% 64–83 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Hawai'i +2.9 130.6 60% 52–51 ✗
Temple @ Memphis +10.1 152.5 83% 77–86 ✓
Iona @ Niagara -5.9 133.4 27% 72–55 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Canisius -5.4 148.7 32% 65–85 ✗
Iowa @ Minnesota -10.8 147.4 17% 68–56 ✓
Michigan State @ Ohio State +4.1 136.0 67% 62–41 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Northern Kentucky +14.4 134.6 88% 47–86 ✓
Robert Morris @ Purdue Fort Wayne +4.6 138.2 68% 71–64 ✗
Youngstown State @ Cleveland State -1.6 151.0 41% 78–81 ✗
Purdue @ Northwestern -1.8 132.6 49% 58–64 ✗
Missouri State @ Evansville -8.1 132.7 20% 66–60 ✓
Marist @ Siena +10.2 131.0 84% 65–73 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Manhattan +1.2 131.4 59% 52–68 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Fairfield +4.2 128.0 65% 72–76 ✓
Wofford @ UNC Greensboro +10.7 137.8 85% 89–97 ✓
SMU @ Wichita State +7.1 145.0 77% 89–91 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.