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Baseline Plus — 2026 NCAA Tournament

Each decided game is marked by whether this model's pre-game favorite won — matchup by matchup, from predictions recorded before tip-off. Undecided games show the model's current pick.

Plain bracket
48–19 on winners log loss 0.4879 upsets called 5 upsets missed 11 First Four 0–4 · 1st Round 26–6 · 2nd Round 12–4 · Sweet 16 5–3 · Elite 8 3–1 · Final Four 1–1 · National Championship 1–0

East

1 Duke 71
16 Siena 65
✓ DUKE 87%
8 Ohio State 64
9 TCU 66
✗ OSU 57%
5 St John's 79
12 Northern Iowa 53
✓ SJU 81%
4 Kansas 68
13 CA Baptist 60
✓ KU 82%
6 Louisville 83
11 South Florida 79
✓ LOU 71%
3 Michigan St 92
14 N Dakota St 67
✓ MSU 85%
7 UCLA 75
10 UCF 71
✓ UCLA 69%
2 UConn 82
15 Furman 71
✓ CONN 89%
1 Duke 81
9 TCU 58
✓ DUKE 84%
5 St John's 67
4 Kansas 65
✓ SJU 67%
6 Louisville 69
3 Michigan St 77
✗ LOU 52%
7 UCLA 57
2 UConn 73
✓ CONN 69%
1 Duke 80
5 St John's 75
✓ DUKE 72%
3 Michigan St 63
2 UConn 67
✗ MSU 50%
1 Duke 72
2 UConn 73
✗ DUKE 67%

South

1 Florida 114
16 Prairie View 55
FF: PV 67, LEH 55
✓ FLA 88%
8 Clemson 61
9 Iowa 67
✓ IOWA 63%
5 Vanderbilt 78
12 McNeese 68
✓ VAN 76%
4 Nebraska 76
13 Troy 47
✓ NEB 86%
6 North Carolina 78
11 VCU 82
✗ UNC 53%
3 Illinois 105
14 Penn 70
✓ ILL 87%
7 Saint Mary's 50
10 Texas A&M 63
✗ SMC 67%
2 Houston 78
15 Idaho 47
✓ HOU 89%
1 Florida 72
9 Iowa 73
✗ FLA 75%
5 Vanderbilt 72
4 Nebraska 74
✗ VAN 57%
11 VCU 55
3 Illinois 76
✓ ILL 70%
10 Texas A&M 57
2 Houston 88
✓ HOU 82%
9 Iowa 77
4 Nebraska 71
✗ NEB 52%
3 Illinois 65
2 Houston 55
✓ ILL 44%
9 Iowa 59
3 Illinois 71
✓ ILL 69%

Final Four

2 UConn 71
3 Illinois 62
✗ ILL 63%

Championship

1 Michigan 69
2 UConn 63
✓ MICH 71%

Final Four

1 Arizona 73
1 Michigan 91
✓ MICH 56%

West

1 Arizona 92
16 Long Island 58
✓ ARIZ 88%
8 Villanova 76
9 Utah State 86
✓ USU 58%
5 Wisconsin 82
12 High Point 83
✗ WIS 78%
4 Arkansas 97
13 Hawai'i 78
✓ ARK 86%
6 BYU 71
11 Texas 79
FF: TEX 68, NCSU 66
✗ BYU 65%
3 Gonzaga 73
14 Kennesaw St 64
✓ GONZ 89%
7 Miami 80
10 Missouri 66
✓ MIA 67%
2 Purdue 104
15 Queens 71
✓ PUR 89%
1 Arizona 78
9 Utah State 66
✓ ARIZ 80%
12 High Point 88
4 Arkansas 94
✓ ARK 81%
11 Texas 74
3 Gonzaga 68
✗ GONZ 80%
7 Miami 69
2 Purdue 79
✓ PUR 71%
1 Arizona 109
4 Arkansas 88
✓ ARIZ 81%
11 Texas 77
2 Purdue 79
✓ PUR 78%
1 Arizona 79
2 Purdue 64
✓ ARIZ 70%

Midwest

1 Michigan 101
16 Howard 80
FF: HOW 86, UMBC 83
✓ MICH 87%
8 Georgia 77
9 Saint Louis 102
✗ UGA 57%
5 Texas Tech 91
12 Akron 71
✓ TTU 71%
4 Alabama 90
13 Hofstra 70
✓ ALA 82%
6 Tennessee 78
11 Miami OH 56
FF: M-OH 89, SMU 79
✓ TENN 80%
3 Virginia 82
14 Wright St 73
✓ UVA 87%
7 Kentucky 89
10 Santa Clara 84
✓ UK 59%
2 Iowa State 108
15 Tennessee St 74
✓ ISU 88%
1 Michigan 95
9 Saint Louis 72
✓ MICH 80%
5 Texas Tech 65
4 Alabama 90
✓ ALA 49%
6 Tennessee 79
3 Virginia 72
✓ TENN 54%
7 Kentucky 63
2 Iowa State 82
✓ ISU 75%
1 Michigan 90
4 Alabama 77
✓ MICH 80%
6 Tennessee 76
2 Iowa State 62
✗ ISU 65%
1 Michigan 95
6 Tennessee 62
✓ MICH 71%