I love it when you call me Big Poppa "Big Poppa" - Notorious B.I.G.
(8) Villanova Wildcats
76 86
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(9) Utah State Aggies
Viejas Arena (Neutral) · March 20, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread USU -1.5 Away covered
O/U 146.5 Over
Money VILL +105 / USU -125
Model Predictions
Spread Total VILL win
Actual USU +10 162 Lost
Massey USU -1.9 (-8.1)
Massey Totals 147.6 (+14.4)
Bradley-Terry 54%
Weighted B-T 60%
Baseline Plus ML VILL -0.2 (-10.2) 143.8 (+18.2) 48%
Model 4 ML VILL -0.8 (-10.8) 142.9 (+19.1) 56%
Model 3 ML USU -0.1 (-9.9) 144.3 (+17.7) 48%
Baseline ML USU -1.2 (-8.8) 145.5 (+16.5) 51%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings VILL USU
Overall 24-9 29-7
Conference 15-5 15-5
Home 14-3 14-1
Away 9-3 7-5
Neutral 1-3 8-1
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 77.1 81.4
Avg Pts Against 71.2 71.2
Massey 13.5 (#42) 15.4 (#31)
Bradley-Terry 2.70 (#28) 2.55 (#33)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.34 (#31) 2.92 (#42)
RPI 0.597 (#27) 0.617 (#18)
Shooting & Four Factors VILL USU
FG% 45.7% 49.5%
3PT% 35.3% 35.1%
REB / G 34.5 34.2
OREB / G 11.5 10.9
AST / TO 1.53 1.63
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.7% 56.6%
TOV% 15.1% 15.4%
ORB% 32.4% 33.1%
FT Rate 21.7% 27.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.3% 49.6%
Opp TOV% 18.7% 20.5%
DRB% 68.3% 67.8%
Opp FT Rate 20.7% 28.5%

Game Analysis

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