Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | VILL +105 USU -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +10 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -1.9 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (+14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -1.4 (-8.6) | 144.0 (+18.0) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -0.9 (-9.1) | 142.2 (+19.8) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -1.0 (-9.0) | 143.9 (+18.1) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -2.0 (-8.0) | 145.2 (+16.8) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 29-7 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 15-5 |
| Home | 14-3 | 14-1 |
| Away | 9-3 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 13.5 (#42) | 15.4 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.70 (#28) | 2.55 (#33) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.34 (#31) | 2.92 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#27) | 0.617 (#18) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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