Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -155 VCU +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +4 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -4.5 (-8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.5 (+6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -2.1 (-6.1) | 144.0 (+16.0) | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -2.7 (-6.7) | 143.9 (+16.1) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -1.3 (-5.3) | 144.3 (+15.7) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -2.4 (-6.4) | 143.3 (+16.7) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 28-8 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 15-3 |
| Home | 18-0 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.7 | 80.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 16.4 (#25) | 11.9 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.08 (#20) | 2.22 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.59 (#23) | 2.79 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#10) | 0.595 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 32.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.