Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | CONN -142 MSU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +4 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -0.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.3 (-6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -0.9 (+3.1) | 135.4 (-5.4) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -0.1 (+4.1) | 134.7 (-4.7) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -0.2 (+4.2) | 136.1 (-6.1) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -0.2 (+3.8) | 137.1 (-7.1) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 25, 2021 | MSU 64 – 60 CONN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-6 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 15-5 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 9-3 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 20.1 (#12) | 20.6 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.96 (#4) | 3.69 (#8) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.79 (#6) | 4.56 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.642 (#5) | 0.636 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 1.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 37.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 77.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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