Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
(2) UConn Huskies
67 63
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(3) Michigan State Spartans
Capital One Arena (Neutral) · March 28, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread CONN -2.5 Home covered
O/U 136.5 Under
Money CONN -142 / MSU +120
Model Predictions
Spread Total CONN win
Actual CONN +4 130 Won
Massey MSU -0.5 (+4.5)
Massey Totals 136.3 (-6.3)
Bradley-Terry 57%
Weighted B-T 56%
Baseline Plus ML CONN -1.0 (+3.0) 136.0 (-6.0) 62%
Model 4 ML CONN -1.1 (+2.9) 135.5 (-5.5) 65%
Model 3 ML CONN -2.7 (+1.3) 134.3 (-4.3) 59%
Baseline ML CONN -1.9 (+2.1) 137.5 (-7.5) 64%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 25, 2021 MSU 6460 CONN

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings CONN MSU
Overall 34-6 27-8
Conference 17-3 15-5
Home 15-2 15-2
Away 9-3 6-4
Neutral 10-1 6-2
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 76.6 78.8
Avg Pts Against 65.2 68.3
Massey 20.1 (#12) 20.6 (#10)
Bradley-Terry 3.96 (#4) 3.69 (#8)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.79 (#6) 4.56 (#9)
RPI 0.642 (#5) 0.636 (#7)
Shooting & Four Factors CONN MSU
FG% 48.2% 47.4%
3PT% 34.7% 36.5%
REB / G 36.8 39.7
OREB / G 11.8 12.4
AST / TO 1.64 1.62
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.3% 54.1%
TOV% 16.9% 17.2%
ORB% 36.2% 37.9%
FT Rate 21.8% 27.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.8% 48.7%
Opp TOV% 18.0% 14.9%
DRB% 71.8% 77.5%
Opp FT Rate 29.2% 22.5%

Game Analysis

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