Betting Lines
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | MSU +125 CONN -145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +4 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -5.4 (+9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.0 (-27.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -2.1 (+6.1) | 149.4 (-25.4) | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -3.3 (+7.3) | 147.0 (-23.0) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -0.4 (+4.4) | 151.1 (-27.1) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -1.1 (+5.1) | 150.7 (-26.7) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 28, 2026 | CONN 67 – 63 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 13-6 |
| Home | 12-3 | 14-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 65.3 |
| Massey | 14.3 (#17) | 19.7 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.88 (#48) | 2.39 (#25) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.67 (#52) | 3.48 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.651 (#25) | 0.557 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 43.6% |
| REB / G | 42.6 | 45.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 15.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 57.1% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 42.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.3% | 40.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 26.3% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.2% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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