Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | DUKE -850 TCU +575 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +23 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -14.8 (+8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (-1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -12.6 (+10.4) | 137.9 (+1.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -11.5 (+11.5) | 137.8 (+1.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -12.9 (+10.1) | 140.0 (-1.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -12.1 (+10.9) | 137.7 (+1.3) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-3 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-0 | 14-5 |
| Away | 10-1 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 10-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 77.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 27.8 (#2) | 13.0 (#43) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.15 (#2) | 2.74 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.73 (#1) | 3.47 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.678 (#1) | 0.568 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.60 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 38.3% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.