Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | DUKE -218 CONN +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +1 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -7.6 (-8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.1 (+9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -9.7 (-10.7) | 129.7 (+15.3) | 84% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | DUKE -8.9 (-9.9) | 130.9 (+14.1) | 83% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | DUKE -9.8 (-10.8) | 129.7 (+15.3) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -8.8 (-9.8) | 124.5 (+20.5) | 85% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-3 | 34-6 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 17-3 |
| Home | 15-0 | 15-2 |
| Away | 10-1 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 10-2 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 27.8 (#2) | 20.3 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.20 (#2) | 4.08 (#4) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.80 (#1) | 4.90 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.681 (#2) | 0.649 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 1.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 38.4% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.1% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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