Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | SJU -600 UNI +440 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +26 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -11.0 (+15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.3 (+1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -11.3 (+14.7) | 131.1 (+0.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -11.6 (+14.4) | 133.4 (-1.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -12.0 (+14.0) | 132.8 (-0.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -10.8 (+15.2) | 132.3 (-0.3) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 11-9 |
| Home | 18-2 | 12-5 |
| Away | 9-1 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 62.5 |
| Massey | 19.0 (#17) | 8.0 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.30 (#15) | 0.72 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.12 (#16) | 0.97 (#105) |
| RPI | 0.620 (#14) | 0.551 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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